Daily rainfall data (1994-2013) for Pune station was analysed to estimate the averages of weekly, monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall and its variability. Probability analysis showed that occurrence of probable rainfall was of 448.1 mm, 68.1 mm, 10.5 mm and 600.8 mm respectively for the Kharif, Rabi, summer and annual at 76% confidence level, the occurrence of rainy days was found to be 41, 33, 4 and 1 day for the annual, Kharif, Rabi and summer season, respectively. The highest rainfall of 1376.2 mm is recorded in the month of July 2013. The rainfall was assured during standard meteorological Week 24 to 27 and 32 to 40. Occurence of dry spell is also seen indicated the need of construction of water harvesting structures for life saving irrigation for the survival of crops. Keeping in view the rainfall pattern and its distribution in the area, suggestions have been made to modify the microclimate with respect to crop planning to increase the quality and productivity under rainfed conditions. Different cropping strategies are suggested such as selection of early maturing varieties, change in crops, cropping pattern, rainwater harvesting techniques.

Keywords: Crop planning; Probability; Rainfall; Weibull plotting method.