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Abstract

Agriculture is the key sector of the Indian economy that influence overall economic growth. It helps in ascertaining the growth and stability of the Indian economy. Agriculture plays a key role in the overall socioeconomic sectors of India. Keeping in view the growth of agricultural sector, an attempt has been made to analyze the agricultural commodities futures market. This market is best used for managing risks and to help the orderly establishment of agricultural markets. Hedging the commodity price risk and Price discovery is the key activity of Futures market. Commodities prices are determined by various information that flow into the market about their fundamentals and technical. It is evident from past that future prices are determined by fundamentals (such as demand and supply, business cycles, weather conditions etc) as SEBI imposed a ban on several commodities to trade on exchanges including tur dal. Therefore, an attempt is made to study the co-relation between futures trading and fundamentals by considering the case of tur dal in Indian Agricultural Commodity Futures Market by using generalized autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasciticity (GARCH (1, 1)).

Keywords: Commodities; Future Market; Price Discovery; SEBI; Hedging.

Corresponding Author : P. Chandrika, Research Scholar, Department of Commerce, University College of Commerce & Business Management, Osmania University, Hyderabad, Telangana State, India - 500007.